RENTREE AVEC FRAICHEUR?

Well for many in much of Europe the holiday season is now coming to an end - and to mark the occasion we have something of a systemic change in the atmosphere slowly beginning to take place. Those in northern Europe may start benefiting from some cool, but more settled weather, as the jet-stream finally becomes disrupted and takes a disjointedly more southerly flow across central parts of our continent - at least for a while.

DOVE IL BELLO PERMANE – Mediterranean and Black Sea

Temperatures remain hot in Turkey, the far south-east of Europe and also across southern Iberia. For these fortunate southern parts – from las Costas through le Midi, tutt’Italia, and then further east all around the Black Sea and extending into Greece and Turkey – lush fin-de-saison weather.

JET ACROSS THE CENTRE – Alps, Mitteleuropa, Baltic, southern Scandinavia

The southwards shift of the jet-stream will provide unstable conditions as a cold front moves southwards through an upland belt comprising the Alps and the Carpathians, with cloudier and rainier spells of weather concentrated through much of Germany, Poland, central Europe, the Baltic States, north-west Russia and southern Scandinavia (including Denmark).

COOL ATLANTIC HIGH – Most North Sea regions and northern Scandinavia

The advancing season will see a stabilising of conditions across many regions of northern Europe, owing to the eventual longitudinal linking of anticyclonic areas stretching initially from west of Ireland up through the Iceland-Greenland region and back eastwards towards the Barents Sea. The far north, along with the British Isles, northern France and the Low Countries will finally witness calmer conditions – not especially warm anywhere though: low 20s C at best for the mainland margins.

WHAT NEXT?

Followers of PWS will have noted that we mention the probability of September snow in some northern latitudes! The high-latitude anticyclonic ‘blocking’ mentioned above will play an important role in this generating some of this early cooling for our part of the planet. Regional cooling can easily occur early in the season, but it is difficult to say just so soon whether this per se presages a cold winter for much of Europe… as soon as we get clearer indications we will of course let you know.

**** The Europe Update will be back in two weeks time: hasta luego!

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